The expanding bureaucracy is increasing to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.

- Oscar Wilde




Updated: 08:58PST - 2 April 2020



“Looking at cremations conducted by area funeral homes, Radio Free Asia estimates the true death toll from the virus to be 46,800 in the city home to the outbreak’s origin. China, however, is reporting the total death rate at 2,500. That’s far less than the 5,000 urns recently sent to one Wuhan funeral home, according to the Chinese news outlet Ciaxin.”
     ⇒ from Estimates Show Wuhan Death Rate Far Higher Than China’s Official Reports

U.S. Response

Frontline report by a verified ER MD in New Orleans LA: Clinical Pearls Covid 19 for ER practitioners

WHO and U.S. response was very slow. The CDC forbade testing while it developed its own tests in spite of the success of tests in Germany, Taiwan and Korea. The first cases in the U.S. and S. Korea were detected about the same time. As of March 17, 1 in 4300 in the U.S. had been tested vs. 1 in 43 for S. Korea. March 20, the CDC shut down efforts to rapidly make available at-home testing kits. See Bunglers below.

Unbelievably, the U.S. Surgeon General still advises against wearing masks because it reduces the numbers available for health care workers. Wearing masks reduces expelled pathogens! Wearing a mask reduces transmission as well as contraction. Had everyone masked up, the U.S. would have dramatically reduced CoViD-19. Even the 6 foot [2m] recommendation is flawed as a sneeze can propel pathogens 20 feet [6m].

“Since the CDC provides no scientific evidence for its statement that masks worn by the public "are not effective", here we review the scientific support for protection conferred by surgical masks.”

“The official recommendation by CDC, FDA and others that masks worn by the non-health-care professionals are ineffective is incorrect at three levels: In the logic, in the mechanics of transmission, and in the biology of viral entry”

     ⇒ from COVID-19: WHY WE SHOULD ALL WEAR MASKS — THERE IS NEW SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE

Millions of tests have been deployed in Asia and Europe while the U.S. bureaucracy dallies. March 25, we received a post card from the CDC advising us what everyone already knows!

Media coverage is appalling covering the range from Apocalypse Now to Pollyanna. A March 23 Issues & Insights editorial reports the CDC symptom onset numbers as good news when those numbers represent only too soon to tell. See The Curves below.

State Health offices have vastly different protocols. They change their positions on what they test and when they report further adding to the chaos. See Bunglers below.

Once testing began, only new cases and fatalities with no indication of numbers tested were reported. The COVID Tracking Project formed to provide the most comprehensive testing data it can collect and hosts a workbook with daily updates.

These graphs are based on those numbers and will be updated daily around 1600 US ET or when data is updated.
Note: 14, 24 & 36 states on March 04, 05 & 06 resp.
          50 States & DC from March 07 to 15. 56 States & Territories from March 16.

U.S. CoViD-19 Daily Positive to Tested Ratio

U.S. Number of positives as a Percentage the numbers tested.

US PosTest Ratio
Legend_Positive   Positive %            Legend_Tested   Number Tested         Legend_Hosp   Hospitalized %

U.S. CoViD-19 Mortality to Positive Test Ratio

U.S. mortality as Percentage of positives, offset by the time indicated. As long as the trend lines continue with negative slope, mitigation is successful. WHO estimated mortality is 14 days after the onset of severe symptoms. US mortality rates will be higher initially due to delayed testing.

US Mortality PosTest Ratio
Mortalitity1wk   Mortality 1 wk %        Legend_Mort10da   Mortality 10 days %      Legend_Positive   Positives

U.S. CoViD-19 Mortality & Positives Two Weeks Prior

The WHO estimates peak mortality occurs about 14 days after contraction, with an extended range of 1 to 8 weeks. U.S. testing only began around the beginning of March 2020 and mostly of the already symptomatic. Expect this graph to begin to diverge as the positives better reflects the actual numbers with CoViD-19 in the tested population.

US Mortality 2wk
Mortality2wk   Mortality            Legend_Pos2wk   Positives 2 weeks prior

U.S. CoViD-19 Population Percentages

Percentage of each U.S. state and territory population tested and positive percentage of those tested. Date to charts above.
States with high percentage of Tested Positives likely are not testing any but those with symptoms.
States with no hospitalization and high percentage of Tested Positives are likely not reporting hospitalizations.
Mortality % is deaths divided by Positives and only for States and Territories with Tested.
ALL is Total U.S. population. Positive, Hospitalized and Mortality are Left Y axis, Population Tested on Right Y axis.

US Pop Tested Click Graph for a larger image
Legend_Positive   Positve %            Legend_Hosp   Hospitalized %        Legend_Mort1wk   Mortality %           Legend_Tested   Tested %

U.S. CoViD-19 Hospitalization, Mortality & Positives Trends

U.S. daily numbers graphed to show trends. Until the numbers flatten out the virus is spreading. Mortality looks encouraging only if the approximately 7,700 U.S. deaths per day are tested for CoViD-19 as a contributing factor.

US Trends
Legend_Hosp   Hospitalized            Legend_Mort1wk   Mortality            Legend_Positive   Positives

The Curves

ChinaCurve200328 SKoreaCurve200328 TaiwanCurve200328

The CoViD-19 Buzz Phrase assuredly has to be 'Flatten the Curve'. China's 'Curve' at left is from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource. It is the ONLY flattened curve on the planet, giving rise to a strong belief of ChiCom mendacity.
South Korea's curve at right is the next best and it is nowhere near flattened, only flattening. Taiwan's is near vertical after holding for nearly two months, albeit with incredibly low numbers.


CurveOR CurveWA CurveCA CurveNY
       Oregon        Washington        California        New York

Graphs of four states mortality and positive counts. Until the mortality flattens, we have not reached any kind of stasis.
Notice the contrast between New York with mass transit, an epidemic's best friend, and California's private transportation. Of course there are other factors, but commuters coming into NYC, riding the subway and then returning back to the 'burbs everyday surely contributed to the 10x ratio between there and California.
If the Mortality bars are increasing faster than the Positives, the Curve is not Flattening.

Useful Information

Excellent, but infrequently updated. Graphs are scrollable to see global progression. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Univ of Oxford. Data can be downloaded along with a list of sources.

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.” text originally from WSJ. from ⇒ How Deadly Is the China Virus?

Date: March 17, 2020
Source: Scripps Research Institute
Summary: An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered. COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin

World O Meters has excellent CoViD-19 pages. World O Meters Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 statistics.

This pre-CoViD-19 study found that medical masks are equally effective for prevention of viral respiratory illnesses. MedLine introduced Antiviral Face Mask that Inactivates 99.99% or Tested Flu Viruses in 2012! Needless to say masks of this type are nowhere to be found.

An N95 mask is effective to ≈0.3 microns. The CoViD-19 virus is about 120nM or about 33% of the size blocked by an N95. Some medical researchers have reported that CoViD-19 pathogens can be expelled as a single entity.

However: Think of it like throwing a handful of sand at a screen door. All the particles of sand will fit through the individual holes in the screen but only a very, very few will pass. In a mask, the holes are a tiny fraction of the total area, whereas door screen is mostly open, so the catch ratio is much higher. A typical multi-layer mask further reduces the hazard.

ANY mask is better than none! All worn masks should be considered as contaminated. Properly dispose or make sterile for reuse.

Bunglers

Snippets on the Bungling Bureaucracy

« Take the case of Alex Greninger, a doctor and researcher at the University of Washington, who, according to a report in GQ, submitted his application to create a coronavirus test via email. Then he learned that he also needed to submit a paper copy, and then another version burned to a compact disk or loaded onto a drive and delivered to the FDA's Maryland headquarters. »     ⇒ from The Coronavirus Testing Debacle Stems From Decades of Bad FDA Policy




« The infected passengers flew in a cordoned-off section of the airplane, separated from the other passengers by plastic sheeting, according to the State Department news release. Upon landing in the United States, all of the Diamond Princess passengers entered a 14-day quarantine at either Travis Air Force Base in California or Joint Base San Antonio in Texas. Passengers were not informed until after they landed that they had been flying with people infected with COVID-19, according to the Post.

"I think those people should not have been allowed on the plane," Vana Mendizabal, 69, a retired nurse from Florida who was on the flight, told the Post. "They should have been transferred to medical facilities in Japan. We feel we were re-exposed. We were very upset about that." »
    ⇒ from Coronavirus-stricken cruise ship passengers returned to US against CDC advice




«When coronavirus emerged, the company spent 23 days doing a high-throughput screen of their antibody library and produced several new antibodies based on the novel virus. “We were able to quickly iterate what we do in other viruses and apply our tech to SARS-CoV-2,” says Bosch.

E25Bio now has all the components of their test ready for coronavirus diagnosis, but no access to the virus to test it. “The scientific community in Boston had not been cleared by the Department of Public Health in Massachusetts to open a vial of virus within secure facilities,” says Bosch. She has been waiting two months for access to the virus, despite running a laboratory that already works with zika, dengue, and West Nile virus, among others. The company’s manufacturer said they can shift from dengue to coronavirus and produce 100,000 coronavirus tests per day, says Bosch—once the test is ready. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences did not immediately respond to a request for comment.»
    ⇒ from Wanted: Rapid, Portable Tests for Coronavirus




«When the new coronavirus appeared, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made its own tests and insisted that people only use those CDC tests. But the CDC test often gave inaccurate results. Some early versions of the test couldn't distinguish between the new coronavirus and water.

Private companies might have offered better tests, and more of them, but that wasn't allowed. The World Health Organization even released information on how to make such tests, but our government still said no. Instead, all tests must go through the government's cumbersome approval process. That takes months. Or years.

Hundreds of labs had the ability to test for the virus, but they weren't allowed to test. »
    ⇒ from Government Red Tape Delays the COVID-19 Response